Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 3.15 for Ajax, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ajax win
77.5% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 3.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sparta Rotterdam home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ajax away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 10% / 13% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 3.15 for Ajax, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.2%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–37.4%
- 0–27.1%
- 1–46.4%
Recent form
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 1-2 (L)
Ajax
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax win, at 77.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.