· Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Spartak Pleven vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Spartak Pleven and 1.49 for Levski Sofia, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Levski Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levski Sofia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Levski Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Spartak Pleven and 1.49 for Levski Sofia, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Spartak Pleven
- 2026-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Beroe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Marek · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 2-0 (W)
Levski Sofia
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Botev Vratsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.