Estádio José Alvalade · Referee Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Sporting CP vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.50 for Alverca, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting CP win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting CP home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alverca away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting CP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Sporting CP and 1.50 for Alverca, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 2-0 (W)
Alverca
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T18:00:00.000Z · Sporting CP 4-1 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-10-31T20:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-0 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-10-28T20:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 5-1 Alverca (Taça da Liga)
- 2019-10-17T19:45:00.000Z · Sporting CP 0-2 Alverca (Taça de Portugal)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.