· Analysis updated 18:24 UTC
Sporting CP vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sporting CP and 2.13 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sporting CP home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
Benfica
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T17:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-12-05T20:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-07-31T19:45:00.000Z · Sporting CP 0-1 Benfica (Super Cup)
- 2025-05-25T16:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 3-1 Benfica (Taça de Portugal)
- 2025-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-11T19:45:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-1 Benfica (Taça da Liga)
- 2024-12-29T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-0 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-06T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-02T19:45:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-2 Benfica (Taça de Portugal)
- 2024-02-29T20:45:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica (Taça de Portugal)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.