Sporting CP vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.30 for Famalicao, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sporting CP win

57.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sporting CP home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Famalicao away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sporting CP win57%

Draw20%

Famalicao win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–18.8%
2–07.3%
3–16.9%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Sporting CP

2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)

Famalicao

2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-15T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2025-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2025-03-15T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 3-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2024-10-26T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 3-0 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2024-04-16T19:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2023-08-27T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2023-04-30T19:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2022-11-13T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2022-02-06T20:30:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-0 Famalicao (Primeira Liga)
2021-10-26T20:15:00.000Z · Sporting CP 2-1 Famalicao (Taça da Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sporting CP win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.