Donaustadion · Analysis updated 11:20 UTC
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 2.50 for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn., a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SSV Ulm 1846 home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 22% / 19% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 2.50 for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn., a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
SSV Ulm 1846
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Sandhausen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Aalen · 0-2 (L)
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Aalen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Homburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 27 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Eintracht Trier | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Kickers Offenbach | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | SV Sandhausen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Hessen Kassel | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Frankfurt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Kaiserslautern II | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.