McDiarmid Park · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
ST Johnstone vs Falkirk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for ST Johnstone and 0.97 for Falkirk, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives ST Johnstone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ST Johnstone home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Falkirk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ST Johnstone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for ST Johnstone and 0.97 for Falkirk, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 55.2% vs market 46.4%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.0% | 56.5% | 1.77 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.9% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.3% | 28.3% | 3.53 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.0% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 43.8% | 43.5% | 2.30 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 71.7% | 1.39 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 44.8% | 2.23 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
ST Johnstone
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkirk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-2 (L)
Falkirk
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 1-1 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 2025-07-08T18:30:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 0-1 Falkirk (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · ST Johnstone 1-0 Falkirk (League Cup)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.