· Analysis updated 12:07 UTC
Stade Payerne vs Echallens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Stade Payerne and 1.82 for Echallens, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives Stade Payerne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Payerne win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stade Payerne home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Echallens away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Payerne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 19% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Stade Payerne and 1.82 for Echallens, a combined 4.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Stade Payerne
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chênois · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vevey Sports · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portalban / Gletterens · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sion II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancy · 3-1 (W)
Echallens
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne Sport II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Naters · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs La Chaux-de-Fonds · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monthey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Coffrane · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azzurri Bienne | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Prishtina Bern | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 26 |
| 3 | Servette II | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Lausanne Sport II | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Naters | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 17 |
| 6 | Sion II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Portalban / Gletterens | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Monthey | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Chênois | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Lancy | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | La Chaux-de-Fonds | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 13 |
| 12 | Echallens | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Meyrin | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Stade Payerne | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 | Coffrane | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Vevey Sports | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Payerne win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.