· Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Stonava vs Vratimov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Stonava and 1.10 for Vratimov, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Stonava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stonava home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vratimov away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stonava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Stonava and 1.10 for Vratimov, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 53.4% vs market 37.0%, edge +16.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 37.0% | 53.4% | 1.87 | +16.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.4% | 66.6% | 1.50 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.2% | 38.3% | 2.61 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.7% | 1.39 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.3% | 28.3% | 3.53 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 33.5% | 33.4% | 2.99 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.0% | 61.7% | 1.62 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.0% | 46.6% | 2.15 | -16.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Stonava
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hlučín · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Valašské Meziříčí · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Frydek-Mistek B · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jiskra Rýmařov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vratimov · 1-3 (L)
Vratimov
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bílovec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Břidličná · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bospor Bohumín · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zabreh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Opava II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Stonava 1-3 Vratimov (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Stonava 1-0 Vratimov (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2025-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · Stonava 1-3 Vratimov (4. liga - Divizie F)
4. liga - Divizie F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Kravare | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Vratimov | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Hlučín | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Opava II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | Stonava | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Valašské Meziříčí | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Zabreh | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Nový Jičín | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Frydek-Mistek B | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Šumperk | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Břidličná | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Bílovec | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | Frýdlant | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -30 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.