Stadium of Light · Referee Jeremie Pignard, France · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.82 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Sunderland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sunderland win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sunderland home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sunderland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Sunderland and 0.82 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 52.3% vs market 49.2%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 49.2% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +3.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.60 | 36.4% | 36.7% | 2.72 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 63.2% | 63.3% | 1.58 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.2% | 15.3% | 6.54 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.6% | 84.7% | 1.18 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.7% | 21.4% | 4.67 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.0% | 78.6% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.8% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sunderland
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
AZ Alkmaar
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sunderland win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.