Stadium of Light · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Sunderland vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.64 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Brentford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Brentford win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sunderland home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brentford away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Sunderland
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)
Brentford
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-1 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2026-01-07T19:30:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-3 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 2-1 Brentford (Premier League)
- 2018-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-2 Brentford (Championship)
- 2017-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 3-3 Brentford (Championship)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brentford win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.