Täfteå vs IFK Luleå Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Täfteå and 1.75 for IFK Luleå, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Täfteå the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Täfteå home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IFK Luleå away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Täfteå win41%

Draw22%

IFK Luleå win38%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–18.9%
2–18.2%
1–27.8%
2–27.1%
1–05.1%

Recent form

Täfteå

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Boden · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kubikenborg · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucksta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Östersund · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Skellefteå · 2-1 (W)

IFK Luleå

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Östersund · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gottne · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Skellefteå · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lucksta · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 1-2 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 1-2 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 4-1 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2026-04-11T12:30:00.000Z · Täfteå 0-4 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2024-08-10T11:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 0-1 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2024-04-06T11:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 1-1 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2019-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 0-7 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2019-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 0-4 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2018-09-22T12:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 2-2 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)
2018-06-09T12:00:00.000Z · Täfteå 0-2 IFK Luleå (Division 2 - Norrland)

Division 2 - Norrland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skellefteå	12	8	3	1	18	27
1	Kubikenborg	12	7	2	3	9	23
2	Täfteå	12	8	1	3	21	25
2	Gottne	12	7	2	3	5	23
3	IFK Luleå	12	8	1	3	18	25
3	Lucksta	12	5	3	4	0	18
4	Boden	12	4	5	3	1	17
4	IFK Östersund	12	4	5	3	3	17
5	Umeå FC Akademi	12	2	5	5	-12	11
5	Friska Viljor	12	2	6	4	2	12
6	Storfors	12	2	2	8	-18	8
6	Umea FF	12	2	5	5	-4	11
7	IFK Umeå	12	1	1	10	-28	4
7	Fransta	12	2	3	7	-15	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.