· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
TEC vs Poortugaal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for TEC and 1.56 for Poortugaal, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives TEC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TEC win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TEC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Poortugaal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TEC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 17% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for TEC and 1.56 for Poortugaal, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–26.2%
- 1–15.8%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
TEC
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Staphorst · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eemdijk · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs JOS Watergraafsmeer · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercules · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 4-4 (D)
Poortugaal
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dongen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs GOES · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gemert · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · TEC 3-2 Poortugaal (KNVB Beker)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TEC win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.