· Analysis updated 10:09 UTC
Thisted FC vs Nykobing FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Thisted FC and 2.25 for Nykobing FC, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Nykobing FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nykobing FC win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thisted FC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nykobing FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Thisted FC
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brabrand · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naestved · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nykobing FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fremad Amager · 2-2 (D)
Nykobing FC
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs B 93 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Skive · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs B 93 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fremad Amager · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-06-14T12:00:00.000Z · Thisted FC 2-1 Nykobing FC (2. Division)
- 2025-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · Thisted FC 1-1 Nykobing FC (2. Division)
- 2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Thisted FC 2-2 Nykobing FC (2. Division)
- 2024-08-18T11:00:00.000Z · Thisted FC 1-0 Nykobing FC (2. Division)
- 2023-11-11T14:00:00.000Z · Thisted FC 1-1 Nykobing FC (2. Division)
- 2023-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · Thisted FC 2-2 Nykobing FC (2. Division)
- 2019-05-05T11:45:00.000Z · Thisted FC 0-1 Nykobing FC (1. Division)
- 2018-10-28T12:45:00.000Z · Thisted FC 1-1 Nykobing FC (1. Division)
- 2018-08-05T11:45:00.000Z · Thisted FC 0-2 Nykobing FC (1. Division)
- 2018-03-25T11:45:00.000Z · Thisted FC 3-3 Nykobing FC (1. Division)
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | VSK Århus | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Naestved | 13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | B 93 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Skive | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Fremad Amager | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 17 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | HIK | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 |
| 11 | Thisted FC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
| 12 | FA 2000 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -16 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nykobing FC win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.