· Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Thisted FC vs Skive Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Thisted FC and 2.10 for Skive, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Skive the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Skive win
60.3% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Thisted FC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skive away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Skive to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 19% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Thisted FC and 2.10 for Skive, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–36.9%
Recent form
Thisted FC
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brabrand · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naestved · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nykobing FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonderjyske · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fremad Amager · 2-2 (D)
Skive
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Esbjerg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Thisted FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fremad Amager · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nykobing FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odder · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | VSK Århus | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Naestved | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | B 93 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Skive | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Fremad Amager | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | HIK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 11 | Thisted FC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
| 12 | FA 2000 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Skive win, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.