Estádio João Cardoso · Referee Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Tondela vs Torreense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Tondela and 1.03 for Torreense, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Tondela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tondela home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torreense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tondela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Tondela and 1.03 for Torreense, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–110.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 54.7% vs market 49.7%, edge +5.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.7% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +5.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.7% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 30.7% | 31.0% | 3.23 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 40.5% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.1% | 69.0% | 1.45 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.8% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 71.4% | 1.40 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.3% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -5.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tondela
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-2 (L)
Torreense
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.