Tre Penne vs Cailungo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Tre Penne and 0.64 for Cailungo, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Tre Penne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tre Penne win

64.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tre Penne home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cailungo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tre Penne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 22% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Tre Penne and 0.64 for Cailungo, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Tre Penne win65%

Draw22%

Cailungo win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–015.8%
2–014.0%
1–110.2%
2–19.0%
0–08.9%

Recent form

Tre Penne

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Domagnano · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cailungo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Cosmos · 2-0 (W)

Cailungo

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Libertas · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Giovanni · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tre Penne · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Pennarossa · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Campionato table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Folgore	6	6	0	0	14	18
2	Virtus	6	5	1	0	10	16
3	Tre Penne	6	5	1	0	9	16
4	Tre Fiori	6	4	1	1	10	13
5	Cosmos	6	4	1	1	10	13
6	La Fiorita	6	2	4	0	4	10
7	Fiorentino	6	2	2	2	5	8
8	Libertas	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Domagnano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Cailungo	6	1	1	4	-2	4
11	San Giovanni	6	1	1	4	-7	4
12	Murata	6	1	1	4	-9	4
13	Pennarossa	6	1	1	4	-13	4
14	Juvenes / Dogana	6	1	0	5	-2	3
15	Faetano	6	0	3	3	-14	3
16	San Marino Academy	6	0	2	4	-13	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tre Penne win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.