De Grolsch Veste · Referee Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands · Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Twente vs ADO Den Haag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Twente and 0.77 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Twente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Twente win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Twente home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADO Den Haag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Twente and 0.77 for ADO Den Haag, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 1–010.6%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 51.6% vs market 42.4%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 88.5% | 89.3% | 1.12 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.50 | 27.0% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.50 | 16.9% | 17.1% | 5.85 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.29 | 72.1% | 72.2% | 1.39 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 8.50 | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.35 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 84.5% | 82.9% | 1.21 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Twente
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
ADO Den Haag
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Twente win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.