Darwin Football Stadium · Referee J. Powers · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Uni Azzurri vs Macarthur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Uni Azzurri and 1.78 for Macarthur, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Macarthur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Macarthur win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uni Azzurri home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Macarthur away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Macarthur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 25% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Uni Azzurri and 1.78 for Macarthur, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.3%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Uni Azzurri
- 2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Macarthur · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Darwin Olympic · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Darwin Hearts · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mindil Aces · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Darwin Olympic · 1-0 (W)
Macarthur
- 2026-08-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SD Raiders · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Uni Azzurri · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-24T09:35:00.000Z · H vs Wellington Phoenix · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth Glory · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · Uni Azzurri 0-3 Macarthur (Australia Cup)
Australia Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Victory | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | South Melbourne | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Sydney | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Lions | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Preston Lions | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Heidelberg United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Fremantle City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | SD Raiders | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Melbourne City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Sydney United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | FK Beograd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Maitland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Peninsula Power | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Rochedale Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Cooma Tigers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Cumberland United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 27 | Sydney Olympic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Uni Azzurri | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Weston Bears | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Bayswater City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Kingborough Lions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marlin Coast | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Macarthur win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.