Stadionul Francisc von Neumann · Referee Istvan Kovacs, Romania · Analysis updated 17:44 UTC
Uta Arad vs Corvinul Hunedoara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Uta Arad and 1.40 for Corvinul Hunedoara, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Corvinul Hunedoara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Corvinul Hunedoara win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uta Arad home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Corvinul Hunedoara away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corvinul Hunedoara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 21% / 27% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Uta Arad and 1.40 for Corvinul Hunedoara, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
Uta Arad
- 2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Botosani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanta · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 5-1 (W)
Corvinul Hunedoara
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Voluntari · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oţelul · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | Rapid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | FCSB | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Corvinul Hunedoara win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.