Estádio São Januário · Referee Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 3.00 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Chapecoense-sc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chapecoense-sc win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasco DA Gama home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chapecoense-sc away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chapecoense-sc to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 17% / 16% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Vasco DA Gama and 3.00 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.5%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–45.6%
- 2–25.6%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Vasco DA Gama
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 2-1 (W)
Chapecoense-sc
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chapecoense-sc win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.