Estádio São Januário · Referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.25 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Mirassol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasco DA Gama home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mirassol away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mirassol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.25 for Mirassol, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Vasco DA Gama
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
Mirassol
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 67 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 32 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 53 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 51 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.