Estádio São Januário · Referee Lucas Casagrande, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:56 UTC
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.99 for Santos, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Vasco DA Gama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vasco DA Gama win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasco DA Gama home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Santos away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.93 | 47.8% | 50.4% | 1.98 | +2.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 72.6% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.90 | 49.2% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 23.4% | 24.0% | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.1% | 74.6% | 1.34 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.9% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.5% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -2.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.45 | 27.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.77 | 52.2% | 49.6% | 2.02 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vasco DA Gama
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
Santos
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 0-3 Santos (Serie A)
- 2026-02-26T22:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Santos (Serie A)
- 2025-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 6-0 Santos (Serie A)
- 2025-03-30T21:30:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2023-10-01T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-4 Santos (Serie A)
- 2023-05-14T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2020-12-20T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Santos (Serie A)
- 2020-09-03T00:30:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 2-2 Santos (Serie A)
- 2019-10-05T20:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2019-05-12T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 0-3 Santos (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vasco DA Gama win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.