Verl II vs Schermbeck Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.71 expected goals for Verl II and 0.99 for Schermbeck, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives Verl II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Verl II win

73.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.71 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Verl II home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Schermbeck away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Verl II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.71 goals for Verl II and 0.99 for Schermbeck, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Verl II win74%

Draw15%

Schermbeck win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–09.0%
2–19.0%
3–08.2%
3–18.1%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Verl II

2026-09-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Gievenbeck · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ennepetal · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS Hordel · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lippstadt 08 · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 1-0 (W)

Schermbeck

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maaslingen · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs ASC Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Rheine · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sprockhovel · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Verl II 1-1 Schermbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Verl II 1-1 Schermbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2025-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · Verl II 0-2 Schermbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
2024-12-01T13:30:00.000Z · Verl II 1-2 Schermbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gievenbeck	12	8	2	2	15	26
2	Vreden	12	7	3	2	7	24
3	Maaslingen	12	7	1	4	6	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	12	6	3	3	7	21
5	Arminia II	12	6	3	3	6	21
6	Lippstadt 08	12	6	2	4	2	20
7	ASC Dortmund	11	6	1	4	6	19
8	Erkenschwick	12	5	4	3	4	19
9	Sprockhovel	12	5	3	4	7	18
10	Preußen Münster II	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Verl II	12	5	2	5	4	17
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	4	3	4	-3	15
13	Hiltrup	12	4	1	7	-10	13
14	TuS Hordel	12	2	6	4	-4	12
15	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	12	4	0	8	-14	12
16	Ennepetal	12	2	5	5	-10	11
17	Victoria Clarholz	12	2	2	8	-7	8
18	Schermbeck	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Verl II win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.