Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Referee Gustavo Correia, Portugal · Analysis updated 16:34 UTC
Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.66 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Vitória SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vitória SC win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória SC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.0%
- 0–013.2%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.7%
Recent form
Vitória SC
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 0-0 (D)
Casa Pia
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-05-11T19:15:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-12-28T15:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-01T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-02-24T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-02-19T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Casa Pia (Taça da Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vitória SC win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.