Vitória SC vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.65 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Vitória SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

75.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vitória SC home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
GIL Vicente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Vitória SC win39%

Draw36%

GIL Vicente win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

64%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals46%

Over 2.5 goals20%

Over 3.5 goals7%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

0–021.2%
1–019.1%
0–113.8%
1–112.4%
2–08.6%

Recent form

Vitória SC

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativa de Lamelas · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)

GIL Vicente

2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T19:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2025-12-08T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2025-04-11T19:15:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2024-12-02T18:45:00.000Z · Vitória SC 4-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2024-02-08T18:45:00.000Z · Vitória SC 3-1 GIL Vicente (Taça de Portugal)
2024-01-28T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2023-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2023-05-21T14:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2023-01-16T21:15:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2022-05-15T19:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 5-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.