· Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Vitória SC vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.95 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Vitória SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória SC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maritimo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Vitória SC
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 0-0 (D)
Maritimo
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-04-29T14:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-11-13T15:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-03-13T15:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-10-22T19:15:00.000Z · Vitória SC 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-07-19T20:15:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-01-12T17:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2019-03-04T20:15:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
- 2018-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 3-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.