Estádio D. Afonso Henriques · Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Vitória SC vs Moreirense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.66 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Vitória SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vitória SC win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória SC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moreirense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitória SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 22% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Vitória SC and 0.66 for Moreirense, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 59.8% vs market 52.7%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.7% | 59.8% | 1.67 | +7.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.2% | 86.9% | 1.15 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 22.1% | 22.3% | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.7% | 77.8% | 1.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 64.6% | 64.6% | 1.55 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.3% | 13.2% | 7.58 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.62 | 36.2% | 35.5% | 2.82 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.3% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vitória SC
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 0-0 (D)
Moreirense
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vitória SC win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.