Estádio Manoel Barradas · Referee Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Vitoria vs Botafogo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.15 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Vitoria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitoria home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Botafogo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 72.6% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 47.3% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 30.1% | 30.9% | 3.24 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.22 | 42.0% | 42.7% | 2.34 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 68.6% | 69.1% | 1.45 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.2% | 57.3% | 1.75 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.1% | 73.6% | 1.36 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 51.5% | 1.94 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.9% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.45 | 27.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vitoria
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-0 (W)
Botafogo
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-23T22:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-0 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2025-11-09T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-0 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2025-07-17T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-0 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2024-11-23T22:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-1 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2024-07-12T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Botafogo (Serie A)
- 2024-05-22T22:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-2 Botafogo (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2024-05-02T22:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Botafogo (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2021-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-0 Botafogo (Serie B)
- 2021-07-01T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Botafogo (Serie B)
- 2018-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 3-4 Botafogo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.