Barradao · Referee Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.24 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Cruzeiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitoria home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cruzeiro away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.6% vs market 43.4%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.4% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +10.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 39.9% | 40.3% | 2.48 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.5% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 71.7% | 1.39 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.88 | 31.9% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 46.4% | 2.16 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vitoria
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-0 (W)
Cruzeiro
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
- 2026-04-01T23:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-3 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
- 2025-11-01T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
- 2025-06-12T22:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-0 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
- 2024-08-19T23:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 2-2 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
- 2024-04-28T19:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro (Serie A)
- 2021-11-14T22:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 3-0 Cruzeiro (Serie B)
- 2021-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · Vitoria 2-2 Cruzeiro (Serie B)
- 2020-12-12T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Cruzeiro (Serie B)
- 2020-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · Vitoria 0-1 Cruzeiro (Serie B)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.