Stadion Tivoli NEU · Referee M. Gachter · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Wacker Innsbruck vs SKN ST. Polten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Wacker Innsbruck and 0.87 for SKN ST. Polten, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Wacker Innsbruck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wacker Innsbruck win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wacker Innsbruck home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SKN ST. Polten away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–18.9%
Recent form
Wacker Innsbruck
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Voitsberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Floridsdorfer AC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKN ST. Polten · 1-0 (W)
SKN ST. Polten
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Salzburg · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 1-0 SKN ST. Polten (2. Liga)
- 2022-05-13T16:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 1-3 SKN ST. Polten (2. Liga)
- 2021-11-05T17:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 1-2 SKN ST. Polten (2. Liga)
- 2020-02-07T17:00:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 5-5 SKN ST. Polten (Cup)
- 2018-11-25T13:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 0-2 SKN ST. Polten (Bundesliga)
- 2018-08-18T15:00:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 0-2 SKN ST. Polten (Bundesliga)
- 2016-04-29T18:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 0-2 SKN ST. Polten (2. Liga)
- 2016-03-11T19:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 0-1 SKN ST. Polten (2. Liga)
- 2015-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 1-3 SKN ST. Polten (2. Liga)
- 2015-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · Wacker Innsbruck 3-0 SKN ST. Polten (2. Liga)
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Wacker Innsbruck | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Floridsdorfer AC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | SKU Amstetten | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Admira Wacker | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | SKN ST. Polten | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wacker Innsbruck win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.