Weserstadion · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 0.89 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Werder Bremen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Werder Bremen win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Werder Bremen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Paderborn 07 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 50.7% vs market 38.8%, edge +11.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.8% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +11.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.38 | 39.8% | 40.9% | 2.44 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 58.9% | 59.1% | 1.69 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.8% | 4.39 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.3% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.4% | 81.9% | 1.22 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.7% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 61.3% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Werder Bremen
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
SC Paderborn 07
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-30T17:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 1-0 SC Paderborn 07 (DFB Pokal)
- 2022-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 (DFB Pokal)
- 2022-01-22T12:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 4-3 SC Paderborn 07 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2021-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 1-4 SC Paderborn 07 (2. Bundesliga)
- 2020-06-13T13:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 5-1 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
- 2019-12-08T17:00:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 0-1 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
- 2015-04-26T13:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
- 2014-11-29T14:30:00.000Z · Werder Bremen 4-0 SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Werder Bremen win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.