Lavanttal-Arena · Referee Alain Sadikovski, Austria · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.75 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Wolfsberger AC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wolfsberger AC home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rapid Vienna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.1%
Recent form
Wolfsberger AC
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Vienna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Parndorf · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
Rapid Vienna
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 0-3 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-21T16:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 0-2 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-04T12:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 1-0 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-20T12:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 5-1 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-08T16:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 3-1 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-11T13:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 0-2 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 3-3 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-26T13:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.