Molineux Stadium · Referee Josh Smith, England · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Wolves vs West Brom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Wolves and 0.87 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Wolves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wolves win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wolves home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
West Brom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 55.8% vs market 47.3%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +8.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.8% | 50.2% | 1.99 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.8% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 49.6% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.1% | 27.0% | 3.70 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 23.0% | 22.9% | 4.37 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.6% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 44.2% | 2.26 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Wolves
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 2-4 (L)
West Brom
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-01-28T11:45:00.000Z · Wolves 2-0 West Brom (FA Cup)
- 2021-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · Wolves 1-1 West Brom (Premier League)
- 2021-01-16T12:30:00.000Z · Wolves 2-3 West Brom (Premier League)
- 2012-02-12T13:30:00.000Z · Wolves 1-5 West Brom (Premier League)
- 2011-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · Wolves 0-2 West Brom (Premier League)
- 2011-05-08T11:00:00.000Z · Wolves 3-1 West Brom (Premier League)
- 2011-02-20T12:00:00.000Z · Wolves 1-1 West Brom (Premier League)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wolves win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.