Racecourse Ground · Referee Robert Jones, England · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Wrexham vs Birmingham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.25 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Wrexham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wrexham home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Birmingham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wrexham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Wrexham and 1.25 for Birmingham, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 2.48 | 37.6% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 45.8% | 47.1% | 2.12 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 72.6% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 72.6% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.76 | 33.8% | 34.5% | 2.90 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.83 | 51.6% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.42 | 65.4% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.4% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.45 | 27.4% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.0% | 60.9% | 1.64 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 52.9% | 1.89 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.7% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -2.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Wrexham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 0-0 (D)
Birmingham
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.