Yambol 1915 vs Spartak Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Yambol 1915 and 1.78 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Yambol 1915 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Yambol 1915 win

46.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yambol 1915 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Yambol 1915 win47%

Draw21%

Spartak Plovdiv win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.1%
1–17.5%
2–27.2%
1–26.7%
3–15.8%

Recent form

Yambol 1915

2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodopa Smolyan · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Plovdiv · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 4-2 (W)

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodopa Smolyan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 1-3 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 4-2 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 3-0 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2025-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 2-5 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 0-3 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2024-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 0-2 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2023-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 0-7 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 2-0 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2022-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 0-4 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2021-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · Yambol 1915 2-2 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	11	0	0	27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	9	0	2	15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	9	0	1	14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	6	2	3	16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	6	1	3	7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Sozopol	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	5	1	5	2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Zagorets	11	4	1	6	-9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	3	2	6	-2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	2	5	4	-4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	2	1	8	-21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	2	0	9	-16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Yambol 1915 win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.