Estadio Ruta de la Plata · Referee M. Garcia · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Zamora vs Lugo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Zamora and 0.78 for Lugo, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Zamora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.8% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zamora home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lugo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 64.4% vs market 52.2%, edge +12.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.2% | 64.4% | 1.55 | +12.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.4% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.7% | 31.9% | 3.13 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.1% | 26.3% | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.3% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 42.2% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.3% | 73.8% | 1.36 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 35.6% | 2.81 | -12.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Zamora
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Lugo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid II · 1-0 (W)
Lugo
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zamora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ourense CF · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · Zamora 1-2 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2026-05-10T12:15:00.000Z · Zamora 3-1 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-09-14T16:15:00.000Z · Zamora 1-0 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · Zamora 0-2 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-11-22T19:30:00.000Z · Zamora 2-0 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.