Pittodrie Stadium · Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Aberdeen and 0.91 for ST Mirren, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Aberdeen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aberdeen win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aberdeen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ST Mirren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 53.7% vs market 45.3%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.3% | 76.9% | 1.30 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 50.5% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 23.1% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 49.3% | 49.2% | 2.03 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.4% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Aberdeen
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-0 (D)
ST Mirren
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-12T18:45:00.000Z · Aberdeen 0-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 0-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-12-03T19:45:00.000Z · Aberdeen 3-3 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 1-0 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 0-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 0-3 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-11-23T16:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 1-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 3-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 1-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2023-12-30T15:00:00.000Z · Aberdeen 0-3 ST Mirren (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aberdeen win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.