Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium · Analysis updated 15:42 UTC
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Sadd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.08 for Al Sadd, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al-Qadisiyah FC win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Qadisiyah FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sadd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.08 for Al Sadd, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 2026-10-12T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pakhtakor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Kholood · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:25:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ettifaq · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 3-2 (W)
Al Sadd
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Sadd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Kashima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Vissel Kobe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Jeonbuk Motors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Buriram United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Port FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Công An Nhân Dân | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Qadisiyah FC win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.