New Balance Arena · Referee Paride Tremolada · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.91 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Atalanta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atalanta win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atalanta home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Venezia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 49.7% vs market 41.9%, edge +7.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.9% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +7.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.8% | 40.7% | 2.46 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.53 | 59.2% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.2% | 5.49 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 22.5% | 4.44 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.9% | 77.5% | 1.29 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 83.3% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 58.1% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -7.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atalanta
- 2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
Venezia
- 2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Atalanta 0-0 Venezia (Serie A)
- 2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Atalanta 2-0 Venezia (Serie A)
- 2022-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · Atalanta 3-1 Venezia (Serie A)
- 2022-01-12T16:30:00.000Z · Atalanta 2-0 Venezia (Coppa Italia)
- 2021-11-30T17:30:00.000Z · Atalanta 4-0 Venezia (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atalanta win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.