Arena Condá · Referee Wilton Sampaio · Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.43 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Paranaense win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chapecoense-sc home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Paranaense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 24% / 27% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.43 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 54.2% vs market 47.3%, edge +6.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 54.2% | 1.85 | +6.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.80 | 24.0% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.6% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 26.9% | 3.72 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 49.2% | 48.9% | 2.04 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.83 | 51.7% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 45.8% | 2.18 | -6.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Chapecoense-sc
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-2 (L)
Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Paranaense win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.