· Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
Congo DR vs Uganda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Congo DR and 0.76 for Uganda, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Congo DR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Congo DR win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Congo DR home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Congo DR to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Congo DR and 0.76 for Uganda, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.14 | 79.6% | 80.9% | 1.24 | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.59 | 57.8% | 58.8% | 1.70 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.27 | 72.9% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 54.1% | 54.6% | 1.83 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 4.85 | 19.0% | 19.1% | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 81.2% | 80.9% | 1.24 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.02 | 45.8% | 45.4% | 2.20 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.42 | 26.9% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.18 | 42.2% | 41.2% | 2.43 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.45 | 20.4% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Congo DR
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbabwe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Equatorial Guinea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-27T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-24T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia · 0-1 (L)
Uganda
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Congo DR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Libya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-06-14T15:00:00.000Z · Congo DR 1-0 Uganda (Friendlies)
- 2023-01-14T16:00:00.000Z · Congo DR 0-0 Uganda (African Nations Championship)
- 2019-06-22T14:30:00.000Z · Congo DR 0-2 Uganda (Africa Cup of Nations)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Congo DR win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.