Stade de l'Aube · Referee Guillaume Paradis · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Estac Troyes vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.56 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marseille win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Estac Troyes home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marseille away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 48.9% vs market 39.7%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 39.7% | 48.9% | 2.04 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.1% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 49.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.4% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.83 | 51.5% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 60.3% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Estac Troyes
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)
Marseille
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rennes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2023-04-16T18:45:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2023-01-11T20:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-27T16:05:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2021-11-28T19:45:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2018-04-15T15:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 2-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2017-12-20T19:50:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2016-05-14T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2015-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 0-6 Marseille (Ligue 1)
- 2013-03-03T16:00:00.000Z · Estac Troyes 1-2 Marseille (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marseille win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.