Stadionul Municipal · Referee Radu Marian Petrescu, Romania · Analysis updated 03:43 UTC
FC Botosani vs Corvinul Hunedoara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Botosani and 1.15 for Corvinul Hunedoara, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives FC Botosani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Botosani home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Corvinul Hunedoara away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Botosani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for FC Botosani and 1.15 for Corvinul Hunedoara, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 73.5% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +2.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.91 | 47.5% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +1.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.75 | 53.3% | 54.4% | 1.84 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.98 | 30.8% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 57.9% | 58.6% | 1.71 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.24 | 41.0% | 41.3% | 2.42 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.1% | 68.1% | 1.47 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.1% | 73.1% | 1.37 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 46.7% | 45.6% | 2.19 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 52.5% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -1.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.55 | 26.5% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -2.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Botosani
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 1-1 (D)
Corvinul Hunedoara
- 2026-10-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Voluntari · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oţelul · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-10T15:30:00.000Z · FC Botosani 0-0 Corvinul Hunedoara (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Rapid | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | FCSB | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Uta Arad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.