FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Lugano and 1.27 for FK Crvena Zvezda, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.27

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Lugano home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Crvena Zvezda away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lugano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for FC Lugano and 1.27 for FK Crvena Zvezda, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Lugano win38%

Draw26%

FK Crvena Zvezda win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–09.9%
0–19.4%
2–18.3%
1–28.0%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 47.1% vs market 40.6%, edge +6.5 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	2.30	40.6%	47.1%	2.12	+6.5
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.50	63.2%	64.6%	1.55	+1.4
Match result	Home	2.40	37.5%	38.2%	2.62	+0.7
Double chance	Home/Away	1.29	73.5%	73.6%	1.36	+0.1
Match result	Draw	3.40	26.5%	26.4%	3.79	-0.1
Match result	Away	2.50	36.0%	35.4%	2.82	-0.6
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.50	63.2%	61.8%	1.62	-1.4
Both teams to score	Yes	1.57	59.4%	52.9%	1.89	-6.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

FC Lugano

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BSC Young Boys · 2-2 (D)

FK Crvena Zvezda

2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IMT Novi Beograd · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.