Estádio do Dragão · Referee Miguel Nogueira, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
FC Porto vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Porto and 1.11 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Porto home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–27.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 57.9% vs market 44.3%, edge +13.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +13.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.3% | 68.0% | 1.47 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.8% | 70.1% | 1.43 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.8% | 32.0% | 3.13 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.8% | 29.9% | 3.34 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.4% | 38.1% | 2.62 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.8% | 61.9% | 1.62 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -13.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Porto
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-2 (L)
Benfica
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 3-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-03-08T18:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-01-14T20:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-0 Benfica (Taça de Portugal)
- 2025-10-05T20:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-0 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-06T19:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-4 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-11-10T20:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 1-4 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-03T20:30:00.000Z · FC Porto 5-0 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-09-29T19:15:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-08-09T19:45:00.000Z · FC Porto 0-2 Benfica (Super Cup)
- 2023-04-07T17:00:00.000Z · FC Porto 2-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.