Groupama Aréna · Referee Damian Sylwestrzak · Analysis updated 08:39 UTC
Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.07 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Ferencvarosi TC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ferencvarosi TC win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencvarosi TC home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Plzen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 48.5% vs market 41.9%, edge +6.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.9% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +6.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 51.1% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 26.3% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.6% | 25.6% | 3.91 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 48.2% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.6% | 74.4% | 1.34 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 58.1% | 51.5% | 1.94 | -6.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
Plzen
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-1 Plzen (UEFA Europa League)
- 2025-02-20T20:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 0-3 Plzen (UEFA Europa League)
- 2025-02-13T17:45:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 Plzen (UEFA Europa League)
- 2024-01-25T14:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-3 Plzen (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-16T00:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 0-0 Plzen (Friendlies Clubs)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ferencvarosi TC win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.