Stadion Feijenoord · Referee Donatas Rumsas · Analysis updated 19:38 UTC
Feyenoord vs Como Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.71 for Como, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Como win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Feyenoord home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Como away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Como to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Feyenoord and 1.71 for Como, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.88 (model 41.8% vs market 32.7%, edge +9.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.88 | 32.7% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +9.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.91 | 49.6% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.7% | 23.8% | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.91 | 48.3% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.30 | 28.0% | 27.8% | 3.60 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.8% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.6% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 67.3% | 58.2% | 1.72 | -9.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Feyenoord
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-1 (W)
Como
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Como win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.