LFF stadionas · Referee R. Valikonis · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.37 for Kauno Žalgiris, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Kauno Žalgiris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kauno Žalgiris away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 52.0% vs market 44.9%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.9% | 52.0% | 1.92 | +7.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 72.8% | 1.37 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 3.20 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.2% | 27.2% | 3.68 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 44.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.0% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 48.0% | 2.08 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 2026-10-10T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Suduva Marijampole · 0-0 (D)
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3-2 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-05-31T11:15:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-04-05T15:45:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-3 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-08-04T17:00:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-2 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-05-20T16:00:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-4 Kauno Žalgiris (Cup)
- 2025-05-17T14:25:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-3 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-04-06T15:25:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2024-09-22T15:25:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 5-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2024-07-05T15:30:00.000Z · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Banga | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -4 | 39 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.