Estádio do Maracanã · Referee Facundo Tello · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.15 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Fluminense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fluminense home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Palmeiras away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 71.6% | 1.40 | +2.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 78.3% | 79.9% | 1.25 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 52.0% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.60 | 59.0% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 35.5% | 35.8% | 2.79 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 35.5% | 35.8% | 2.79 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 29.0% | 28.4% | 3.52 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.30 | 41.0% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.4% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.4% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 48.0% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.33 | 21.7% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fluminense
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-3 (L)
Palmeiras
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2026-02-26T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2025-11-23T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2025-07-23T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-2 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2024-12-08T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2024-07-25T00:30:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-0 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2023-12-03T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 0-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2023-08-06T00:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 2-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2022-08-27T22:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
- 2022-05-08T19:00:00.000Z · Fluminense 1-1 Palmeiras (Serie A)
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Universitario | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 1 | U. Catolica | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 1 | Corinthians | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Platense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Junior | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 1 | LDU de Quito | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Mirassol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Lanus | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Always Ready | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | UCV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.